Summary

The current forecast date is 04 July, showing data until 07 July.

The following Trusts/UTLAs have been temporarily excluded from this report due issues with the underlying case forecasts in one or more associated UTLAs: NA, NA, NA

The main forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:

  1. unweighted time series ensemble model (autoregressive ARIMA, ETS and naive models)
  2. regression + 7-day-lagged cases (cases mapped from UTLA to Trust using Trust-UTLA mapping in covid19.nhs.data)
  3. convolution from cases to admissions (scaled; cases mapped to Trusts as above)

All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 23 May) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.

Current forecast

Overall

Summary, table

Current forecast, ribbon

Forecast increase, scatter

Forecast increase, maps

By NHS region

Note: for clarity, we only show forecasts for Trusts which have admitted five or more patients in the last 7 days.

East of England

London

Midlands

North East and Yorkshire

North West

South East

South West

Past forecasts